Centro de Investigaciones Económicas - CINVE

Discovering pervasive and non-pervasive common cycles with an application to the US
    • 03/2018

    Guillermo Carlomagno. Center of Economic Research (CINVE), University ORT Uruguay

    Antoni Espasa  Department of Statistics, Instituto Flores de Lemus, University Carlos III of Madrid

    Abstract
    The objective of this paper is to propose a strategy for exploiting short-run commonalities in the sectoral components of macroeconomic variables in order to obtain better models and more accurate forecasts of the components and, hopefully, of the aggregate. Our main contribution concerns cases in which the number of components is large, so that traditional multivariate approaches are not feasible. We show analytically and by Monte Carlo methods that subsets of components in which all the elements share a single common cycle can be discovered by pairwise methods. As the procedure does not rely on any kind of cross-sectional averaging strategy: it does not need to assume pervasiveness, it can deal with highly correlated idiosyncratic components and it does not need to assume that the size of the subsets goes to in nity. Furthermore, the procedure works both with xed N and T ! 1, and with [T;N] ! 1. We perform an application to the US CPI and nd good results of our procedure.

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