Centro de Investigaciones Económicas - CINVE

Publications
  • A nonlinear approach to the tourism-led growth hypothesis: the case of the MERCOSUR

    10/2014

    Abstract This paper analyses the tourism-led growth hypothesis for the four countries of the MERCOSUR regional trade block. By applying nonlinear techniques, we explore whether tourism activity leads – in the long run – to economic growth, or, alternatively, economic expansion drives tourism growth, or indeed a bidirectional relationship exists between the two variables. To this end, non-parametric cointegration and causality tests are applied to quarterly data for the period 1990–2011. We show the existence of a cointegrated relationship between real per capita gross domestic product and tourism expenditure for…

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  • Expectations and industrial output in Uruguay: Sectoral interdependence and common trends

    10/2014

    ABSTRACT This paper examines the interdependence between expectations and growth by analysing Uruguayan manufacturing industry, divided for the purpose into four industry groupings differentiated by trade participation and production specialization. The study shows that there is a long-run relationship between industrialists’ expectations and output growth in each grouping. In the most trade-oriented groupings the relationship is one of predetermination, showing how useful expectations are as a guide to sectoral growth. Expectations in the four industrial groupings are shown to follow a common long-run trend, identified with the one guiding the…

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  • La política de tiempo completo y los resultados educativos en la enseñanza media

    05/2014

    Revista de Economía del Banco Central del Uruguay, Segunda Época, Vol.21, Num.1.Montevideo, Mayo 2014. Cecilia Llambí. Abstract: This paper reviews and discusses the application of four non experimental methods to estimate the impact of the full time school program in Uruguay (FTS) on student outcomes in math, reading and science, assessed at age 15 by the international PISA tests. I use ordinary least squares, matching, instrumental variables (IV) and control functions, and I discuss the possible sources of bias that are present in each method. As an exclusion restriction, I…

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  • Does public financial support to innovation increase innovation and productivity? An Impact Evaluation

    Diego Aboal, Paula Garda

    11/2013

    Abstract  The aim of this paper is to contribute to the scarce empirical literature that evaluates the effects of public financial support to innovation on innovation innovation and productivity in services. We apply propensity score matching techniques to analyze the impact of public financial support to innovation in Uruguayan firms. We use two waves of innovation surveys that allow us to distinguish between manufacturing and service sector firms. The results indicate that there is no crowding-out effect of private innovation investment by public funds, and that public financial support seems…

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  • THE TOURISM-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY FOR THE MERCOSUR COUNTRIES.

    Juan Gabriel Brida, Bibiana Lanzilotta, Juan Sebastián Pereyra y Fiorella Pizzolon

    10/2013

    Abstract The aim of this paper is to provide evidence for the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for the four countries of MERCOSUR regional trade block, analyz- ing differences and similarities from a comparative perspective. In particular, the study empirically explores whether tourism activity leads –on the long run– to economic growth, or, alternatively, whether economic expansion drives tourism growth, or indeed a bi-directional relationship exists between the two variables. To this end, cointegration analysis, exogeneity and causality tests are applied to quarterly data for the period 1990 – 2011. The findings show…

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  • Jamaica’s need to appropriate economic value

    Beverley Morgan

    10/2013

    Introduction The growth in services has become a significant part of the global economy, with services accounting for an increasingly significant proportion of nations’ GDP and international trade (Gallouj & Djellal, 2010; Florida, 2004).  In the Caribbean and Latin America, services account for approximately sixty percent of employment but reflect low levels of productivity and contribution to GDP, relative their size in the regions’ economies (Tacsir, et al, 2011).  In the case of Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the role, actual and potential, played by services assumes particular importance.   These…

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