Centro de Investigaciones Económicas - CINVE

Published Papers
  • Expectations and industrial output in Uruguay: Sectoral interdependence and common trends


    ABSTRACT This paper examines the interdependence between expectations and growth by analysing Uruguayan manufacturing industry, divided for the purpose into four industry groupings differentiated by trade participation and production specialization. The study shows that there is a long-run relationship between industrialists’ expectations and output growth in each grouping. In the most trade-oriented groupings the relationship is one of predetermination, showing how useful expectations are as a guide to sectoral growth. Expectations in the four industrial groupings are shown to follow a common long-run trend, identified with the one guiding the…

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  • “Lessons from the 2008 Financial Crisis: Policy Responses to External Shocks in Uruguay”


    The Developing Economies Volume 51, Issue 3 p. 233–331. 2013Carmen Estrades y Cecilia Llambí Abstract The 2008 global crisis affected the Uruguayan economy through two main channels: collapse in global trade and drop in capital flows. As a reaction to the crisis, the Uruguayan government adopted a countercyclical policy, increasing public consumption and investment and expanding social benefits to unemployed workers. In this paper, we apply a static computable general equilibrium model (CGE) linked to a microsimulation model to analyze how effective were the policy responses to prevent or soften…

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  • The tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Uruguay

    Juan Gabriel Brida, Bibiana Lanzilotta, Stefania Lionetti£ and Wiston Adrián Risso


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