Assessing Impacts From Climate Change on Local Social-ecological Systems in ContextsWhere Information is Lacking: An Expert Elicitation in the Bolivian Altiplano

Authors:

Santiago Guerrero  (por CINVE, DINAMA, Banco de México)

Adán L. Martínez-Cruz (por CIDE y CEPE)

Miriam Juárez-Torres (por Banco de México)

A b s t r a c t
Assessment of the expected impacts from climate change is an essential input for agencies engaged in fostering
adaptation of local social-ecological systems. However, data is seldom available at the required scale. This study
overcomes this hurdle by gathering data via an expert elicitation protocol. We report experts’ judgements about
two topics: i) the impacts from climate change on crop yields in three communities located in the Bolivian Altiplano;
and ii) the effectiveness of specific irrigation techniques in mitigating the impacts from climate change in
the communities under study. Our gathered data allowus to document heterogeneity of expected impacts across
communities –with one community expected to experience an increase in yields under wet climate change scenarios.
Experts judge irrigation as an effective mitigation tool undermost of the dry climate change scenarios presented
to them. We believe that our data collection strategy represents a promising decision support tool for a
wide range of public policy issues. Particularly, when monetary and time constraints converge with the lack of
scientific information. In addition, the information gatheredwith this methodology can be incorporated into participatory
methodologies gathering information from local social-ecological systems.

Access Work

Más vistos

Economic complexity of goods and services in Uruguay

Complejidad económica uruguaya en bienes y servicios The objective of this work was to explore the recent history and diagnosis of the complexity of Uruguay's...

The Impact of a Mathematics Computer‐Assisted Learning Platform on Students’ Mathematics Test Scores

Marcelo Perera Diego Aboal   Abstract Since 2013, the Uruguayan educational system has been using an online adaptive learning tool for mathematics: The Mathematics Adaptive Platform (PAM for its...

Knowledge networks for innovation in the forestry sector: Multinational companies in Uruguay

Diego Aboal, FLavia Rovira y Federico Veneri. Abstract In this paper, we analyse the role that inter-agency and inter-business linkages have in the process of technological...

Discovering specific common trends in a large set of disaggregates: statistical procedures, their properties and an empirical application

Author: Guillermo Carlomagno: Central Bank of Chile and Center of Economic Research (CINVE) Antoni Espasa: Department of Statistics and Instituto Flores de Lemus, University Carlos III...

A guide for the evaluation of programs of human capital training for science, technology and innovation

Author: Diego Aboal, Marcelo Perera, Ezequiel Tacsir & Maren Vairo Abstract: We provide a practical guide for impact evaluation of Training and Human Capital programs in Science...

Noticias relacionadas